Towards improved biodiversity forecasts
Abstract: Move, adapt or die – these are basically the options that species have to respond to global environmental change. In response to recent climate and land use change, we have already observed complex species range and community shifts, phenological changes, and local extinctions. Still, we heavily rely on correlative species distribution models to predict species response to environmental change, although these ignore important mechanisms such as physiology, demography, dispersal, interspecific interactions and adaptations. Here, I discuss some recent advances that we made towards more mechanistic biodiversity modelling, but also show important gaps that remain in data availability and methods. I conclude by outlining an integrated modelling platform for forecasting biodiversity change and testing the effectiveness of management and mitigation strategies.
Host: Robert Arlinghaus